Kenya Likely to Present A Significant Number Of Minimally Influential Government Sanctioned and Extra-Governmental Role Potentials
Executive Summary:
While Kenyan non-state actors (NSAs) are likely to exhibit roles consistent withscores of 2 on the role potential spectrum in terms of degree of influence, the presence of both stableGovernment-Sanctioned and stable Extra-State role potentials is likely to produce numbers of NSAs in excess of that which is normally consistent with scores of 2. The socio-political environment of Kenya exhibits truly unique qualities making it one of only two Sub-Saharan states to receive a split score on the role potential spectrum (the other being Rwanda). Kenya demonstrates diametrically opposing characteristics, which lock Extra-Government and Government-Sanctioned role potentials in a stable balance. It is likely that this dynamic relationship will remain static over the next five years. A score of 2 on either side of the role potential spectrum indicates that the government either fails to represent the populous and relies on a few NSAs to validate and secure its powers (Extra-Government), or its representation of the populace is ineffective and cumbersome. Kenya exhibits both of these qualities simultaneously. Kenyan government is dominated by coalitions of ethnic/tribal based power bases (Extra-Government). While elections are held regularly (Government-Sanctioned) endemic corruption hampers the effective representation of the people. To complicated the problem further, the Kenyan government exhibits difficulties regulating the behavior of NSAs in rural and border areas. The latter characteristic is more consistent with a state scoring 3 or 4 on the Extra-Government side of the role potential spectrum. The opposing scores of 2 on the role potential spectrum are likely due to the fact that opposing role potentials mitigate each other and keep role potentials from gravitating to one side or the other.
Discussion:
Kenya has a democratic system in which coalition powers regularly shift to provide Government-Sanctioned vectors for non-state actors (NSA) to exert their influence and redress political issues, contributing to a score of 2 on the Government-Sanctioned side of the role potential spectrum (Democracy Variable= 2GS). However, the Kenyan government's inability to secure its porous border and rural areas provide lucrative opportunities for rebel groups (spilling over from conflicts in neighboring countries), arms, drug and human traffickers, and other unlawful NSA to secure stable roles in these areas, contributing to a score of 2 on the Extra-Government side of the role potential spectrum (Failed State Variable= 2EG). Kenya has significant economic advantages within the region including infrastructural and technical advantages, diverse economic base, etc, contributing to a score of 2 on the government sanctioned side of the role potential spectrum (Doing Business Variable= 3GS). Mitigating these advantages is rampant corruption within the political and business strata of Kenya, contributing to a score of 2 on the Extra-Government side of the role potential spectrum (Corruption Variable= 2EG). These opposing forces have historically and will likely continue to adapt to changes in efforts to mitigate the each other. It is highly unlikely that resolutions to conflicts in neighboring countries, such as Ethiopia and Somalia, will materialize in the next five years. The forces impinged on Kenya by these conflicts are likely to only reinforce the balance of role potentials. Efforts to redress corruption, including the 2003 installment of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Committee, have not significantly curbed corruption. Given the amount of effort and attention devoted to corruption, the failure to properly redress corruption is indicative of a government which fails to produce effective regulations and institutions to control the behavior of NSAs. From a sample of NSAs in Sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya has 21 NGOs, 19 businesses, and 2 active terrorist groups placing them in the 77th, 77th, and 50th percentile of Sub-Saharan African States respectively. In the attempt to understand the respective roles of NSAs and Governmental forces, Kenya is an elusive state. In most states it is the government or lack there of that defines the role potential for NSAs; however, in Kenya it is likely equally relevant to understand the role of Government as defined by the opposing roles of NSAs. To be sure, rampant corruption inhibits effective and proper representation of the populous and inhibits the formation of purely competitive free markets; limited representation keeps politicians, ethnic groups, and business interests somewhat accountable; and attractive economic characteristics compel many actors to traverse Kenya's difficult business obstacles.
Kenya Likely to Present A Significant Number Of Minimally Influential Government Sanctioned and Extra-Governmental Role Potentials
Executive Summary:
While Kenyan non-state actors (NSAs) are likely to exhibit roles consistent with scores of 2 on the role potential spectrum in terms of degree of influence, the presence of both stable Government-Sanctioned and stable Extra-State role potentials is likely to produce numbers of NSAs in excess of that which is normally consistent with scores of 2. The socio-politicalDiscussion:
Kenya has a democratic system in which coalition powers regularly shift to provide Government-Sanctioned vectors for non-state actors (NSA) to exert their influence and redress political issues, contributing to a score of 2 on the Government-Sanctioned side of the role potential spectrum (Democracy Variable= 2GS). However, the Kenyan government's inability to secure its porous border and rural areas provide lucrative opportunities for rebel groups (spilling over from conflicts in neighboring countries), arms, drug and human traffickers, and other unlawful NSA to secure stable roles in these areas, contributing to a score of 2 on the Extra-Government side of the role potential spectrum (Failed State Variable= 2EG). Kenya has significant economic advantages within the region including infrastructural and technical advantages, diverse economic base, etc, contributing to a score of 2 on the government sanctioned side of the role potential spectrum (Doing Business Variable= 3GS). Mitigating these advantages is rampant corruption within the political and business strata of Kenya, contributing to a score of 2 on the Extra-Government side of the role potential spectrum (Corruption Variable= 2EG). These opposing forces have historically and will likely continue to adapt to changes in efforts to mitigate the each other. It is highly unlikely that resolutions to conflicts in neighboring countries, such as Ethiopia and Somalia, will materialize in the next five years. The forces impinged on Kenya by these conflicts are likely to only reinforce the balance of role potentials. Efforts to redress corruption, including the 2003 installment of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Committee, have not significantly curbed corruption. Given the amount of effort and attention devoted to corruption, the failure to properly redress corruption is indicative of a government which fails to produce effective regulations and institutions to control the behavior of NSAs. From a sample of NSAs in Sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya has 21 NGOs, 19 businesses, and 2 active terrorist groups placing them in the 77th, 77th, and 50th percentile of Sub-Saharan African States respectively. In the attempt to understand the respective roles of NSAs and Governmental forces, Kenya is an elusive state. In most states it is the government or lack there of that defines the role potential for NSAs; however, in Kenya it is likely equally relevant to understand the role of Government as defined by the opposing roles of NSAs. To be sure, rampant corruption inhibits effective and proper representation of the populous and inhibits the formation of purely competitive free markets; limited representation keeps politicians, ethnic groups, and business interests somewhat accountable; and attractive economic characteristics compel many actors to traverse Kenya's difficult business obstacles.
Analytic Confidence: 7
Source Reliability: 7.5